Just one look at today’s Ukrainian reality leaves no room for doubt that acting President Poroshenko at least has no chances to be re-elected anymore. Indeed he’s more likely to resign long before his first term is over. In such situation the main question starts not with ‘when’, but with ‘who’. Who will become his successor?
The Governor of Odessa Oblast Mikheil Saakashvili has been making most serious preparations to the presidential race. He seems to be the most probable choice. There is quite a number of evidence that there are U.S. companies developing Saakashvili’s election campaign strategy. DCI Group is a leading consulting company promoting Republicans. It has established a list of recommended guidelines for the election campaign of the ex-president of Georgia.
Also in all Ukrainian regions the social research of the approval ratings of the acting government and Saakashvili’s person as a candidate for Presidency was held. Not surprisingly that the acting government is in no good odor. Just about 13% of Ukrainian citizens put credence in it. Against this background Mr. Saakashvili’s results look impressive. He’s got more than 55% support in some regions.
The record addressed Saakashvili’s electoral strategy in Odessa Oblast is most indicative. It includes engagement of mass media and film industry for the improvement of Governor’s image, aid to Donbas refugees, reform of regional power and force structures, the Russian opposition members’ involvement, development of volunteer services, etc. Many of those items are already being fulfilled right now.
Apparently, those forces behind Saakashvili are discontent with results of the president Poroshenko activities. The last one has fully lost control over political situation in the country. Volunteer battalions don’t obey him. Security officials and oligarchs make backroom deals of their own. The Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk fires president’s men from key posts and makes open efforts to establish direct dialog with American Senators. In such situation Saakashvili’s promotion seems to be the most logical solution of current problems.
Georgian ex-president is an approved and utterly controllable figure. He wouldn’t take initiative or ignore instructions during any critical emergency. That is exactly the man Washington needs as a head of Ukraine.
No matter if shift in power would occur shortly, or it would be scheduled election 2019. There is extremely high probability that Mikheil Saakashvili would continue winning ground support among disappointed Ukrainians at the instigation of his overseers. Sooner or later he’s to win the Ukrainian presidency.